UCLA released a new study examining the fate of U.S. hospitals over the next decade. Imagine: Hospital beds full of patients but no one there to treat them, or dormant beds, waiting to be used but not enough providers to open them.
The research finds that by 2032, 85% of all hospital adult patient beds could be occupied and by 2035, 85% of adult and pediatric beds combined, could be full. During the 2030s, America’s population will be rapidly aging as the largest generation, the Baby Boomers, enter full retirement. According to the study, the short-staffed U.S. workforce is not prepared to handle this increasingly aging and sick population.
Other findings in the report include:
- From 2009 to 2019, the average hospital occupancy rate was nearly 64%. Post-pandemic (2023-2024), the occupancy rate rose to 75.3%.
- The newly increased baseline in hospital occupancy is primarily driven by a 16% reduction in the number of staffed hospital beds rather than by an increase in hospitalizations.
- An increase in the staffed hospital bed supply by 10%, reduction in the hospitalization rate by 10%, or some combination of the two would offset the aging-associate increase in hospitalization over the next decade.
To avert a hospital bed crisis, the study suggests potential solutions such as addressing factors like provider burnout and expanding the pipelines of new healthcare professionals. Further, access to new talent has been restricted by actions such as the U.S. State Department freezing all new visas for foreign-trained nurses while application levels remain nearly double those seen pre-pandemic.
Stakeholders across the healthcare field are working hard to counteract these risks, looking into solutions like outpatient facilities and at-home programs. These allow for non-critical medical procedures and treatments to be delivered outside of a hospital setting. However, this pivot may only be a viable solution for larger systems as smaller organizations struggle to scale these programs.
Click HERE to read the full study in JAMA.
Click HERE to read more about the report.