A recent Mercer research report on U.S. healthcare labor market projections predicts a workforce shortage of 100,000 workers by 2028. The anticipated surpluses and shortages among 88 different healthcare occupations were examined, including the roles of home health aides, nurse practitioners, physicians, registered nurses, and nursing assistants.
The report assessed where the largest supply-demand gaps will occur, which healthcare occupations will see the most significant shifts, how these gaps will vary by geography, and how compensation trends can guide future talent strategies.
The results reveal growing challenges in attracting and retaining talent within the healthcare system. Accelerated resignations caused by COVID-19, burnout, an aging population, and lagging wages are seemingly driving a decline in labor supply, especially among primary care physicians, advanced practice providers, and nurses.
• The slow growth rate of nursing assistants (0.1%), especially in states like New York, Texas, and California, will significantly affect patient care and increase burnout and turnover among other healthcare workers who rely on them.
• Nationally, nursing assistants are projected to face the largest deficit among healthcare occupations, with an expected shortage of over 73,000 by 2028, largely due to challenges in retaining positions with lower education or certification requirements, making them the highest in demand.
• Despite a projected 3.5% growth rate, a nationwide shortage of nurse practitioners by 2028, combined with physician deficits, could disrupt preventative care across various states.
• Access to qualified primary care will vary across the U.S., with certain states, like California, facing acute shortages of specialized physicians such as OB-GYNs, pediatricians, and family medicine doctors.
• When it comes to registered nurses, New York and other East Coast states will fall short of meeting increased demand.
Healthcare systems must be willing to develop strategies for identifying and mitigating labor risks, as increased competition from other industries for lower-wage patient care roles is significantly impacting the healthcare workforce. The struggle to recruit qualified healthcare professionals could make operating in certain areas more difficult and deepen health equity gaps, especially between rural and urban communities.
Mercer’s report on the future of the U.S. healthcare industry urges employers to develop comprehensive plans and innovative tactics, including competitive compensation, creative talent sourcing, and optimized work designs, to combat labor shortages impacting patient care.